Dr. Sylva Opuala-Charles was a former Commissioner for Finance and Economic Development in Bayelsa State. Here, he spoke on the gains of President Goodluck Jonathan’s Transformation Agenda and the impact on Nigeria’s economy. Excerpts.
The campaigns for the general elections in 2015 are around the corner and we expect that in the next couple of weeks the INEC will open the window for political campaigns for the Presidential election. What are the chances that President Jonathan will be re-elected in 2015, taking into consideration his Transformation Agenda and the current political and security challenges in the country?
After the general elections in 2011, there was violence in some parts of the North where many people died, among them Youth Corps members. That was where the problem started. However, I must say President Jonathan has been very focussed since then. In spite of the outbreak of terrorism instigated by the Boko Haram sect and other challenges, he has not been deterred in his developmental strides. It would have been very difficult to achieve the power sector reforms if his government was not focussed. It is a major milestone, considering that power infrastructure is vital to development, as the life and productivity of the manufacturing sector and industries depend on its availability. If you also look at the aviation industry, airports across the country have undergone major upgrading, rehabilitation and have also been provided with state-of-the-art security, navigation and communications equipment. This has resulted in an increase in passenger confidence and patronage. In the agricultural sector, there is a revolution unfolding. Fertilizer distribution and allocation has been digitalised, thereby eliminating the fraud and nepotism that used to characterise the process in the past. Farmers have also received assistance in the form of loans, equipment on lease and seedlings to boost food production and achieve self-sufficiency. We can see that across various sectors of the economy, the President has done very well. From 2008 at the beginning of the global financial crises, the Yar’Adua/Goodluck administration was able to handle it as the Federal Government did not go anywhere in the world to beg for money or bail-outs as it was called in the West. This was due to their clearly defined approaches to development issues. Look at the elections that have been conducted under this administration: Anambra, Ekiti, Osun, Edo and Ondo State elections have all been free of violence and malpractices.
These few indices show how the nation has fared under President Jonathan. So when people say things such as the President is clueless, I just feel that they are mischievous and they themselves have issues. Because when you say somebody is clueless, it means that person does not know anything about what he is doing, but the President is making very concerted and verifiable progress. We must understand what clueless means because some Nigerians are beginning to abuse the English Language. The security challenges we have are not peculiar to Nigeria. In Iraq, Syria, Ireland, Ukraine, Russia and beyond, there are similar problems of insurgency. In nearby Mali, insurgents overthrew the government until the French sent in military backup to restore order, while in Libya, militants have overrun the capital city of Tripoli and yet nobody has called their leaders clueless even in those conditions. We still have order in our own country and yet we cannot
appreciate the efforts to preserve our unity. The same actors that call the President clueless are the same people fomenting the trouble in the Northeast. If they say the President is clueless, why did the political parties administering those Boko Haram hotbed states not solve the problems before the President declared a state of emergency in Yobe, Borno and Adamawa, because they had an opportunity to do so? I have been in government before so I know what it takes. The Joint Task Force (JTF), the Police, the SSS all work with the Governors. When the Niger Delta states corrected the militancy era in the region, they worked with the militants and tried to reach compromises. The Federal Government did not come in to declare a state of emergency because the Governors in the region were able to manage the militants to make sure that the violence did not escalate beyond their reach as it has happened in the Northeast. For me, the President has done very
well. We must leave political sentiments aside, judge him using clear parameters and face the reality that under the present circumstances he has performed creditably. Some other person may have become disillusioned and lost focus of his economic drive and Transformation Agenda. The President has world class economic advisers and people who are committed to re-engineering the Nigerian economy, but I do not understand why people feel that they just have to bring him down at all costs. Looking at the six zones in the country, what is the PDP likely to do in 2015 to win the elections, taking a zone by zone analysis? The PDP presently has about 20 states; the APC has 14 states while APGA and Labour Party make up the remaining two. The South-south is a stronghold of the PDP, as the president is from this zone. The only opposition state in this region is Rivers but the APC is a new doctrine for the Rivers people. So, the penetration is not very high yet. For Edo State, there is confusion in their House of Assembly occasioned by skirmishes and discordant voices. Altogether, it is expected that President Goodluck Jonathan will score about 90 per cent of the votes in this region. In the South-east, the president has no contender. The only place where there are any issues is in Imo State but even at that, the Deputy Speaker of the Federal House of Representatives, Emeka Ihedioha, the PDP senators and the APGA senator, who has defected to the PDP, were very big factors in the elections that brought Rochas Okorocha into power. I do not see the president, scoring less than 60 per cent in Imo State. Other states like Anambra, Abia, Enugu and Ebonyi are given to Goodluck. In the South-west, we realise that Lagos is cosmopolitan, so I do not envisage that the president will score less than 40 per cent. In Ondo, the Labour Party supports the president 100 per cent. Ekiti is already PDP and in Osun, the last election was very close so, we can say the PDP will get about 40 per cent of the votes. In Oyo State, I expect the votes to be split equally at 50 per cent while in Ogun State, it cannot be less than 50 per cent. For the North- central region, Niger State is PDP and until we know who the opposition will produce as Jonathan’s contender, I can say PDP will collect over 40 per cent of the votes in the state. In Kogi State, the president cannot score less than 60 per cent, in Kwara 50 per cent while in Nassarawa, which is a PDP State; he cannot score less than 60 per cent. Taraba State will give about 70 per cent of its votes to PDP; Benue will deliver 90 per cent while Plateau State will not be expected to deliver anything less than 90 per cent. In the North West, considering the Bafarawa factor, I am looking at a minimum of 30 per cent for the President. In Katsina, it cannot be less than 30 per cent because the incumbent is PDP while Kebbi State, which is controlled by the PDP, will deliver not less than 30 per cent. In the North East, with Sheriff crossing from the APC to the PDP, so his state cannot deliver less than 30 per cent. On the other hand, I see Adamawa delivering 60 per cent, Bauchi State 50 per cent, Gombe State 50 per cent, Borno 30 per cent and Yobe 30 per cent. There is no way the president will not win the elections. Another thing we need to determine is; what is the political ideology the opposition is bringing. We neither know their candidates nor have we identified any distinctive political ideology they have introduced. Nigeria is a mixed economy with a combination of both the socialist and capitalist systems. Some of the countries that have done well, like the Asian Tigers and Chinese, ran a closed economy where they put barriers and tariffs to protect local industries, but those kind of policies are no longer possible today because most countries are now members of the World Trade Organisation. I think the major plank that I am interested in is the industrialisation drive and the power sector reforms, which have the potential to boost the economy and create employment, which will in turn put the economy on autopilot. Finally, the security challenges facing us are unprecedented in the history of this country. Do you have any feeling of the possibility of a break up? Do you also see the report of the National Conference as coming to the rescue of Nigerians? Nigeria will not break up because Nigerians have come to love comfort. I do not think that with the experience of the civil war in the late 60s anybody will want a repeat. The issue with the Nigerian people is uneven development. If you listen to people from the North, I do not think they are particular about where the President comes from, but the issues are whether they are getting enough resources to develop their area. In this regard therefore, I think the President has done a lot of
balancing in terms of the Almajiri schools and other projects he is carrying out in the North. Even a good chunk of the ministries are headed by Northerners, so I do not really see the break up happening here. The resources are from the South, and the North have ruled for a very long time. In that period, the North developed an alliance with the South South and the South have always supported Northern leaders from the Sokoto axis. For the first time, we have a President from the South South and if we have been allies with the North for about 40 years; as Adaka Boro supported the North against the Igbos and the Ijaws fought really hard to liberate these areas; I think it is only natural for them to concede the eight years to the South South as there is no doubt that the North are majority and nobody can stop them from ruling this country again. Goodluck’s ascension to the Presidency was a divine arrangement; and since he is there whether by accident or
by God’s design, he should be allowed to finish his eight years since he is performing creditably, more so being that they are our allies, friends and partners. I think it will be unfair to break that relationship because the President is from a minority tribe. The signal it sends to the South-South people is that they have been perpetually used by the North and are not considered as allies. Therefore, I think it is important for the Northerners to look inward and if there is any area in which the President has not done well for them, they should be pointed out for correction. However, to say that he should not contest, claiming that it is their turn is unwarranted. They should forget sentiments and support the President in his bid to make Nigeria a better place for us all. I think the delegates to the Confab did very well but the responsibility now lies with the legislature to ensure that they treat the report with a sense of patriotism. I will
suggest that they adopt a doctrine of necessity to conduct a referendum that Nigerians demand and abdicate the constitution to form a people’s constitution so that the clamour for a sovereign national conference that has been going on for a while will be buried finally. I also think it is an opportunity for the President of the Senate, David Mark, a very seasoned democrat who has shown maturity, dexterity and wisdom in piloting the affairs of the Upper Chambers of the National Assembly, to ensure that the report translates into a new Constitution
The CBN, effective July 1, introduced the cashless policy. How have the rural communities especially those in the riverine areas of the Niger Delta embraced it, taking into consideration the issues of lack of banking services, unstable power supply, illiteracy and low levels of technology penetration? The cashless policy is a welcome idea. However, I think that it can only be implemented in regions and outlets that are adequately equipped with the necessary facilities to ensure efficient operations. When I was in government, I know that most people from the rural communities get their cash from the capital cities to the rural areas for payment of salaries and sundry matters. Pending when the policy penetrates properly, the people to be most affected in these regions are Civil Servants. The way it works is that every Civil Servant maintains an account with the bank; most of them earn between N30, 000 and N60, 000 and this is not much. When salaries are paid, they come into the capital or visit the nearest town with a bank once in a month to withdraw the money they need.
In light of the recent rebasing of Nigeria’s GDP which ranks us as the largest economy in Africa and in your position as an economist, what is your advice to government to take advantage of this new status. In addition, looking at the Transformation Agenda of President Jonathan’s administration, what are the indices that have helped to shore up our GDP? I think that it is a very good thing that has happened. He has tried to bring the economy back on track by adjusting the GDP figures to reflect the realties of the country’s economy. Today, as we have learnt, our economy is worth over $500billion upstaging the economy of South Africa valued at $380billion. However, the issue people have raised is about Per Capita Income, which is how much individuals are worth in cash. The fact that our Per Capita Income is still low when compared to some other countries in Africa does not mean that the GDP rebasing is wrong or that the Transformation Agenda is not working. The major problem the federal Government is facing is job creation because, when you create more jobs, you can address the issue of PCI. That means you are looking at the population divided by the GDP, that is, how much of the GDP accrues to each person in the economy. Therefore, people are saying we have a very large economy but how much money does the ordinary man have in his pocket? The way I look at it, the country has been in a mess for a while. How many jobs have been created over the past 20 years until President Goodluck Jonathan took over in 2011?